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The Darfur Crisis

The impact on people of the two-year conflict in Sudan's western region of Darfur has been described as the world's worst humanitarian crisis by the United Nations.

Some two million people are estimated to now live in camps, having fled their homes. At least 400,000 are thought to have died during the crisis. Sudan 's government and the pro-government Arab militias are accused of war crimes against the region's black African population, although the UN has stopped short of terming it a genocide.

Darfur is a region in western Sudan the size of France. Since 2003 there has been a war involving the government of Sudan and its Janjaweed militia on the one hand and Darfur rebel groups on the other. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the rebel group, which took up arms against what it described as an oppressive and insensitive government is now split into three factions. Sadly, it is the innocent people of Darfur who have become the victims of what the UN has labelled the worse humanitarian crisis of our new century.

The reality is that the situation has not changed since a peace deal was signed in Nigeria on May 5, 2006 between the government of Sudan and the biggest rebel group. News reports on Monday July 1, 2006 indicate that the Darfur conflict spilled over to Hamrat al-Sheikh in North Kordofan province causing the deaths of 12 people. The Sudan government blames forces linked to the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), who rejected a Darfur peace deal. Just a few days after the peace deal was signed, more than 60 people were killed in Darfur as they have been since 2003. While all sides must be condemned for breaching the peace deal, the Sudan government is not helping by refusing the proposed UN troop deployment, which was not part of the peace deal. The global community must insist that Sudan allow the immediate deployment of the 20,000 UN troops under chapter 7.

How did the conflict start?

The conflict began in the arid and impoverished region early in 2003 after a rebel group began attacking government targets, claiming that the region was being neglected by Khartoum.

The rebels say the government is oppressing black Africans in favour of Arabs.

There has been tension in Darfur, which means land of the Fur, for many years over land and grazing rights between the mostly nomadic Arabs and farmers from the Fur, Massaleet and Zagawa communities.

There are two main rebel groups, the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), which have been linked to senior Sudanese opposition politician Hassan al-Turabi.

What is the government doing?

It admits mobilising "self-defence militias" following rebel attacks but denies any links to the Janjaweed, accused of trying to "cleanse" large swathes of territory of black Africans.

Refugees from Darfur say that following air raids by government aircraft, the Janjaweed ride into villages on horses and camels, slaughtering men, raping women and stealing whatever they can find.

Many women report being abducted by the Janjaweed and held as sex slaves for more than a week before being released.

Human rights groups, the US Congress and US Secretary of State Colin Powell say that genocide is taking place - though a UN team sent to Sudan to find out instead said that war crimes had been committed, but there was no intent to commit genocide.

Sudan 's government denies being in control of the Janjaweed and President Omar al-Bashir has called them "thieves and gangsters".

After strong international pressure and the threat of sanctions, the government promised to disarm the Janjaweed. But there is little evidence of this so far. Thousands of extra policemen have been deployed but the refugees have little faith in the Sudanese security forces.

They have recently announced the trials in Khartoum of some members of the security forces suspected of abuses - but this is viewed as part of a campaign against UN-backed attempts to get some 50 key suspects tried at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

What has happened to the civilians?

Over 3 million have fled their destroyed villages, with many heading for camps near Darfur's main towns but there is not enough food, water or medicine.

The Janjaweed patrol outside the camps and Darfurians say the men are killed and the women raped if they venture too far in search of firewood or water.

Aid workers have warned that many thousands are at risk of starvation and disease in the camps - and one million children threatened by malnutrition - especially during wet seasons when access is restricted.

Over the next 18 months, up to 4 million people may be affected by food shortages, the UN warns.

Attempts by security forces to persuade the refugees to leave the camps and return home have led to violence and brought condemnation from the international community.

Meanwhile, a drought and a big reduction in the number of active farmers means a heavy dependence on food aid during the next few months.

Some 200,000 have also sought safety in neighbouring Chad, but many are camped along a 600km stretch of the border and remain vulnerable to attacks from Sudan.

Chad is worried that the conflict could spill over the border. Its eastern areas have a similar ethnic make-up to Darfur.

Lots of aid agencies are working in Darfur but they are unable to get access to vast areas - accusing the government of blocking their movements by demanding visas and using other bureaucratic obstacles. Sudan says these have been removed.

The United Nations has cut food rations in half as a result of severe funding shortage. The ration has been half the minimum required each day since May 2006. Almost 3 million people depend on food aid.

The World Food Programme (WPF) has only received half of the money it needs to provide adequate rations. The BBC reported that is costs $746 million US to feed all the refugees. The minimum requirement for daily food rations is 2,100 kilocalories per person. After the ration cuts, the new amount is 1,050 kilocalories per person. The cut is designed to ensure that some food lasts through the "hunger season" between July and September.

The Peace Deal

The Darfur peace deal that was signed on May 5, 2006 includes disarming the Janjaweed militias and rebels’ demands that Darfurians not be neglected by the Khartoum government.

One faction of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and the Khartoum government signed the peace deal in Abubja Nigeria. The deal was signed by Minni Minawi, the leader of an SLA faction even though the majority of the SLA did not agree with the Peace Deal. SLA still said they still have concerns on whether Khartoum is ready to share power.

Abd-al-Wahid Muhammed Nur leads another faction of the SLA and refused to sign. He said the agreement does not fulfill their minimum demands. Some of the demands he made was that Darfurians have the right to nominate a vice-president in the central government for Khartoum and that the displaced people have the right to compensation.

The rebel groups that did not sign the peace deal, including Justice and Equality movement (JEM), have been launching attacks outside the Darfur region.

Commander in Chief of the SLA Juma Hagar is opposed to the peace agreement and he and other local commanders do what they want without control.

Most of the Darfur camps and Jan Pronk, involved in brokering the deal, also disagree with the peace agreement. The BBC reports that Pronk demanded security guarantees, more disarmament, and more compensation for victims.

Is anyone trying to stop the fighting?

The government and the two rebel groups signed a ceasefire last April but this has not held.

Subsequent African Union brokered peace talks in Nigeria have failed to make much progress though agreement has been reached on banning military flights in Darfur and on humanitarian aid.

Some 3,000 African Union troops have slowly been deployed in Darfur on a very limited mandate. The number is expected to rise to as many as 12,000 with the west pledging logistical and financial support. Khartoum is resisting allowing them to beef up their powers to disarm combatants.

The United Nations has been criticised for doing too little, too late - but some significant diplomatic progress is now being made.

The Security Council agreed to impose travel bans and an asset freeze on those who commit atrocities in Sudan's Darfur region.

A dossier of evidence compiled by a UN commission has also been passed to the ICC in The Hague along with the names of top war crimes suspects.

The Sudan government has hinted that it may let Darfur run its own affairs more if this would help solve the crisis.

It has agreed to let southern Sudan have its own government as part of a deal to end 20 years of conflict in that region.

But so far the crisis shows no signs of abating.

How Many Darfurians Have Perished?

Nobody knows how many people have died during the three-year conflict in Darfur. The widely quoted UN's World Health Organisation figure of 70,000 people is clearly wrong because it was based on a study that does not include those killed in the violence and just covers a six-month period. Some analysts are estimating that the true death toll could be four or five times higher than the 70,000 figure.

One significant problem in establishing a clear idea is that the Sudanese government and their allies, an Arab militia known as the Janjaweed, are blamed for most of the deaths, so the Khartoum authorities show little interest in encouraging any accurate assessment. Indeed they consistently underplay the scale of the crisis.

Myriad international differences on Darfur have also contributed. The UN Security Council remains unable to agree on how to sanction the government or the perpetrators of abuses from all sides. The small African Union force meant to monitor a ceasefire is ineffective and under strength.

This has led to continuing clashes, meaning many parts of the province remain insecure and inaccessible to those who might investigate.

A recent UN mission visited to establish whether US claims of genocide in Darfur were accurate. It failed to give any kind of toll, despite cataloguing hundreds of violent incidents and many eyewitness accounts of village massacres.

The commission concluded that grave human rights abuses were taking place but there was no genocide. It is calling for war crimes trials.

Given the lack of clarity and sensitivities for agencies working in Sudan, there has been speculation and extrapolations from researchers outside Sudan about how many might have died in Darfur.

The calculation has been to guess how many might have died in violence based on eyewitness accounts - and then add on those that could have died from other causes over and above those that would normally have died in this harsh and sporadically violent part of the world.

This has led to claims that several hundred thousand may have died.

The 70,000 figure covered the worst period, before aid agencies were given greater access to Darfur . The number of deaths in the camps has now fallen, but either side of the six-month period there will still have been substantial deaths, campaigners say.

Added to this, is a figure for how many may have been killed in the violence.

There is still no clear consensus on the number of people who have died in the conflict. Most NGOs estimate 400,00 people. Dr. Eric Reeves has spent seven years in Sudan working as an analyst and researcher. He has estimated as much as 450,000 people have died (April 28, 2006)

Amnesty's Sudan researcher Elizabeth Hodgkins says that as a protest against the unwillingness of the government to compile numbers they began putting together lists of those killed.

They presented several thousand names to the UN genocide commission - in a 54-page document.

"We wanted to put names to the victims - otherwise it just becomes a faceless statistic," she told BBC News.

Julie Flint, the author of a human rights watch report and well known writer and campaigner on Sudan, says that any statistics can only give a partial figure, as they tend not to include deaths during the first year of the conflict, or from among the large numbers of people in hiding - of which little is known.

But she says the critical thing is for Khartoum to change its approach to prevent future deaths.

"The government launched a massive attack in Darfur just as they were in Abuja for the last round of peace talks with the rebels reaffirming their commitment to a ceasefire."

"The important thing is that the deaths stop. How many more will die while the international community argue?"

For current news on Darfur click here.